Client: Department for Social Development
March 2008 saw the opening of the new £400m Victoria Square shopping centre in Belfast city centre, a 800,000 sq ft retail-led scheme which has attracted the likes of H&M, House of Fraser, French Connection, Ted Baker and Urban Outfitters. The scheme additionally includes a cinema, restaurants, cafes and residential units.
As part of the planning process, the Department for Social Development appointed our research team to undertake an independent assessment of the ‘additionality’ likely to result from the scheme. In other words, we were to evaluate the impact of a development of this magnitude on surrounding property values.
The solution
Our approach was to assess the likely level and nature of demand for retail space within the scheme. We used case studies of similar schemes in other cities to demonstrate the impact on their surrounding property values, and commissioned a pedestrian flow survey to understand footfall patterns within Belfast. We were then able to forecast the impact (positive, negative or neutral) on the area in consideration using a ‘before’ and ‘after’ valuation for each property likely to be effected by a decrease or appreciation in value as a result of the new development.
Results
Our assessment calculated the change in property values in surrounding streets, concluding that the scheme will enhance the city’s retail offer and improve its ranking within the UK retail hierarchy.
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