InvBrief – Winter 2018/19
Scenario testing with regard to the type of Brexit (or possibly not) has long since passed being a rational occupation. It is all about politics and as the past few years have shown, not just in the UK, anything seems possible however illogical it might first appear. That has not stopped the Bank of England last week producing some quite alarming, albeit plausible outcomes, particularly in respect of a “disorderly” exit (or as some call it, the doomsday scenario!). For the property sector this sees dramatic falls in values, both residential and commercial, together with interest rates rising to around 4%. As one commentator put it, in the past this could have been looked at as a worst case (unlikely) scenario, but the ability of today’s political leaders to happily walk off a cliff edge with all the known and unknown consequences moves it into realistic prospect territory.
I hope you find this edition of Investment Brief of interest, which presents “normalised” forecasts. The next few weeks will hopefully provide a little more clarity and allow perhaps us to perhaps enjoy Christmas in a bit more of a relaxed state than we have been for much of this year.
For more information, please download the full report.